How resilient is the European Digital Banking Landscape?
Europe, a diverse and dynamic region, is the world's second-smallest continent but an influential economic force. With a combined nominal GDP of EUR 14.5 trillion in 2021, the European market makes up 14% of the global total GDP value. The region is home to powerhouse economies like Germany, France, and Italy. Yet at the same time, it faces the challenge of an ageing population, with a median age of 44.1 years, projected to reach 48.2 years by 2050.
European banking in the face of global challenges
The Covid-19 pandemic has transformed the European banking landscape, resulting in declining profitability for many institutions. Ultra-low interest rates have accelerated loan losses, and an oversaturated market has led to increased consolidation, with the number of credit institutions falling from 8,525 in 2008 to 5,264 in 2021.
Nevertheless, European banks have demonstrated resilience, absorbing the pandemic's shock and adapting to new circumstances with the aid of unprecedented public support. They have gradually built up their capital levels, increased total assets, and maintained positive ROEs.
Embracing digital transformation in banking
The adoption of online and mobile banking channels has led to a decline in the number of bank branches and reduced employment in the sector. The number of domestic bank branches in the EU has decreased from over 225,000 in 2008 to about 138,000 by the end of 2021. Despite this, banks remain significant employers in the European Union, providing jobs to over 2.1 million people.
Adapting to geopolitical shifts
Recent geopolitical events have led to weakened economic forecasts and rising inflation. The resulting increase in interest rates may place additional stress on indebted households while also presenting opportunities for banks to grow their net interest margins. Banks have a crucial role in addressing customers' challenges and supporting economic recovery.
What the future holds?
In the face of ongoing market uncertainty, banks and other market participants must prepare for potential recessions. This involves revisiting market positions, exploring new opportunities, and further enhancing operational efficiency and robustness.
The European banking landscape is evolving rapidly, presenting unique challenges and opportunities. By understanding the region's distinctive characteristics and adapting to shifting consumer behaviours, banks can successfully navigate the complex world of digital banking in Europe.
